To all my Partners,
By now all of you have received your individual monthly statements. If for any reason you have not, please contact me and will be glad to resend it to you.
|
Bena Capital up months |
Bena Capital down months |
| February | January |
| March | April |
| May | July |
| June | |
| August | |
| September |
For September, the Bena Capital Fund had a +3.05% return for last month
| So far this October | YTD |
| +3.4% | +14.61% |
| Oct. 1st – 18th | Jan. 1st – Sept. 30st |
October has been negative 7 of the last 10 years. But, with a negative October, the remainder of the 4th quarter (November & December) has normally ended the year in the positive. Just as an example, it’s exactly 37 years ago today (October 19, 1987), the stock market crashed with the Dow Jones dropped over 500 points which at the time, was -23 points and was known as Black Monday. And most of us remember our parents or grandparents talk about Black Tuesday. This was the stock market crash of October 24, 1929. One was October 1929 and the other in October 1987. Do you see anything in common? Let’s keep our fingers crossed that we get through this month unscathed.
Due to the recent storms throughout the Gulf Coast this hurricane season, I think our investments in Home Depot will show a good return. The 3rd quarter results which cut off on September 30th will be released on November 12th. But major hurricanes such as Helene and Milton all occurred in October. And, let’s not forget Hurricane Francine, which hit the New Orleans area in September! The returns due to those storms will be showing for Home Depot in their 4th quarter earnings report which will be released in the 1st quarter of 2025.
September’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation eased slightly for last month to a 3-year low, rising to +2.4% year-over-year according to the Dept. of Labor.
Inflation possibly may be easing across much of the economy, but for healthcare…not yet. The cost of employer health insurance rose 7% for a second straight year. The back-to-back years of rapid increases have added more than $3,000 to the average family premium, which reached roughly $25,000 this year. Employers spent about $1,880 more this year than 2023.
The Social Security Administration separately said last week that Social Security benefits would rise +2.5% in 2025, the smallest cost-of-living adjustment in four years! The increase is calculated using a different version of the September CPI.
So, what did we do?
History reminds us that it has typically been better to ‘buy’ than ‘bail’. We at Bena Capital Fund are playing the long game! By that I mean in two to three years from now, we really won’t remember did the Federal Reserve cut 2 or 3 times back in 2024? If markets drop for a month, or more it may create a market correction which have occurred naturally throughout the years.
For all 24 corrections in the S&P 500 since W.W. II (1945), it took only 4 months to recover losses.
Never let your emotions become your portfolio’s worst enemy.
So, how did we do?
| For September | 1-year (12-month) Returns: | ||
| Dow Jones: | +1.88% | Dow Jones: | +16.97% |
| S&P 500: | +2.04% | S&P 500: | +28.54% |
| Nasdaq: | +2.70% | Nasdaq: | +31.18% |
| Berkshire Hathaway: | -3.33% | Berkshire Hathaway: | +28.63% |
| Bena Capital Fund: | +3.05% | Bena Capital Fund: | +35.22% |
Some highlights of last month:
- Average cost of family health rose +7%, coverage reached roughly $25,500 this year
- September’s unemployment rate drops to 4.1%
- September’s jobs report added 254K, largest gain since March, with the highest in leisure & hospitality
- September’s average hourly earnings up +0.4% M/M (up +4.0% Y/Y)
- 30-year fixed mortgage rates jump to 6.53% due to strength of September’s Jobs Report
- September’s CPI rose +0.2% for month over month
- September’s CPI for the year is up +2.4% down from last month’s 2.5%
- Social Security payments will rise +2.5% in 2025 due to COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments)
- Cost of Hurricane Milton to Florida residents to be between $30-40 billion
- Auto loan defaults now at 15-yr. high
- Tupperware files for bankruptcy after struggling with weak sales
- Marc Zuckerberg (of Meta/Facebook) passes Jeff Bezos (of Amazon) as world’s 2nd richest thanks to Meta’s stock gains. Elon Musk, still #1 richest.
- Costco adds platinum to its list of gold and silver bars sold at their 612 stores
- SEC filing shows Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway trims Bank of America stake holding now just above 10%
- Former Pres. Donald Trump wants tax deductions for interest on car payments
September Jobs Report
| Non-farm payroll | 254K |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.1% |
| Avg. Hourly Wages (M/M) | +0.4% |
| Avg. Hourly Wages (Y/Y) | +4.0% |
Where Are The Jobs?
| Leisure & Hospitality | +78K |
| (Food Service & Drinking Places) | +69K |
| Health Care | +45K |
| Government | +45K |
| Construction | +25K |
| Retail | +15K |
| Manufacturing | -7K |
Source: BLS
September’s CPI Report
+0.4% +2.3% +0.2% +4.9%
M/M Y/Y M/M Y/Y
Food Shelter
Increases from prior month (August)
Source: BLS
and other price increases from August’s CPI
| Category | M/M growth |
| Transportation Services | +1.4% |
| Clothing | + 1.1% |
| Electricity | +0.7% |
| Utility Gas Services | +0.7% |
Source: BLS
| Name | Type of Business | Amount | State Domiciled |
| 1. Elon Musk | Tesla/SpaceX | $245 billion | Texas |
| 2. Jeff Bezos | Amazon | $197 billion | Florida |
| 3. Mark Zuckerberg* | $181 billion | California | |
| 4. Larry Ellison | Oracle | $175 billion | California |
| 5. Warren Buffet | Berkshire Hathaway | $150 billion | Nebraska |
| 6. Larry Page | $136 billion | California | |
| 7. Sergey Brin | $130 billion | California | |
| 8. Steve Ballmer | Microsoft | $123 billion | Washington |
| 9. Bill Gates | Microsoft | $107 billion | Washington |
| 10. Michael Bloomberg | Bloomberg LP | $105 billion | New York |
* Since the Forbes 400 went to press in September, Mark Zuckerberg has surpassed Jeff Bezos as the 2nd richest in the world
Tax Revenues Before and After 2017 Trump Tax Cuts
$3.31 Trillion $4.89 Trillion
FY2017 Receipts FY2022 Receipts
+47.73%
Percentage increase in Revenue
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Treasury Statement, Fiscal 2024
$4.9 Trillion $6.8 Trillion
Total Revenue Total Spending
Source: US Department of Treasury
Top line items in Treasury’s budget
| * Social Security: | $1.5 trillion |
| * Health: | $912 billion |
| * Net Interest: | $882 billion |
| * Medicare: | $874 billion |
Source: US Department of Treasury
Top oil producers within OPEN
(barrels per day, FY2023)
| 11.13M | 4.42M | 4.16M | 3.99M | 2.19M |
| Saudia Arabia | Iraq | United Arab Emirates | Iran | Kuwait |
Source: US Department of Information Administration
Average Car Age in the U.S.
as of 05/22/24
12.6 years
for cars & light trucks
Source: S&P Global Mobility
Who pays the most in federal income taxes?
| Income Group (percentile) | Tax rate paid |
| Top 1% | 47& |
| Top 10% | 70% |
| Top 50% | 5.3% |
| Bottom 50% | -2.2% |
Source: non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation
Tupperware Files for Bankruptcy
Tupperware Brands, founded in 1946 by Earl Tupper and known for its resealable plastic containers and pioneering direct-to-consumer sales, has filed for bankruptcy after years of struggling weak sales. In June, the company was going to close its only factory in the U.S. and lay off nearly 150 employees.
Cost of basic essentials for last 3 1/2 years
January 2021 – present
| +21.8% | +22.7% | +31.8% |
| All foods | All shelter | All energy |
Source: Source BLS
Small Business Survey
33%
of small business owners believe inflation has peaked, up +9 pts from last quarter which was at 24%
Source: CNBC; 9/27/24
A positive effect on their business
50% 32%
Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Source: CNBC Small Business Survey; 9/27/24
Real Median Income Comparison
+$7,690 (10.5%) +$1,050 (1.3%)
2016-2019 2020-2023
Under Trump Under Biden-Harris
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. economy under Joe Biden & Kamala Harris Administration
January 20, 2021 – present
+19.7% -1.7% 8.1 Million+
Overall inflation Real wages adjusted for inflation Southwest land border encounters
Source: Treasury Dept.; Bureau of Labor; Customs & Border Protection
Nationwide Border Encounters of Single Adults
FY2021 to FY 2024 (YTD)
508K 302K 152K 78K
Venezuela Haiti China Russia
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Household Annual Income
for FY 2023
| $80,610 | $112,800 | $89,050 | $65,540 | $56,490 |
| U.S. avg. | Asian | White | Hispanic | Black |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Most Expensive States for Auto Insurance
June 2024 – Full coverage annual costs
$3,400 $3,336 $3325 $3,271 $3,201
Maryland South Carolina New York Nevada Florida
Source: Insurify
Official NFL Valuations
(average value of NFL team is $6.5 billion)
Most valuable teams
#1
$11B
Dallas
Cowboys
#2
$8B
Los Angeles
Rams
#3
$7.9B
New England
Patriots
#4
$7.85
New York
Giants
#5
$7.8B
Las Vegas
Raiders
(and the bottom)
#28
$5.58B
New Orleans
Saints
#29
$5.4B
Detroit
Lions
#30
$5.35B
Buffalo
Bills
#31
$5.3B
Arizona
Cardinals
#32
$4.1B
Cincinnati
Bengals
Jerry Jones’ owner of the Dallas Cowboys is a wise investor!
Dallas Cowboys
$11B $1.2B $150M
Today’s value Revenue Purchased in 1989
NFL (at-a-glance)
$6.5B
Current average team value
$20.5B
2023 total league revenue
$9.2B
Average annual value of network deals
(+85% from previous cycle)
Source: CNBC; 9/5/24
IRS increasing of audits for those making under $200K
Passage last year of the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’, an increase to the IRS was included for $80 billion to hire 87,000 more agents and the promise that this would go towards audits for those making $400K or more. Now, according to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (page 16) in his August 31, 2023 report says:
“63% of SB/SE Division’s FY2023 total new examinations will be on taxpayers with less than $200,000 TBI.”
Well, so much for believing a politician!!
I’ve been asked to repeat this from our March’s Partner’s Letter, so:
History has shown that some months are kinder than others to investors.
According to records spanning over 95 years, since 1929:
Months with the biggest gains: Months with the biggest losses:
January, April, July, and December February, May, August, and September
The S&P Rises 3 out of 4 years since 1926!
The S&P is up approx. 75% of the time going all the way back for almost 100 years (since 1926)!
| S&P | % advance each year |
| 20%+ | 36% |
| +10% to +20% | 21% |
| 0 to +10% | 15% |
| 0 to -10% decline | 15% |
| 10%+ decline | 13% |
Source: Dimensional Funds
Have you moved?
If you have moved or changed addresses to where your 1099’s should be sent, please contact me with the new information.